Predicting the risk of corporate failure for Australian listed companies : a fresh approach using probability-based tri-dimensional modelling

Corporate failure is a regularly recurring problem for stakeholders, particularly investors, creditors and customers. Early attempts at predicting such failure typically relied on analysis of individual performance measurements such as accounting ratios; it was not until the late 1960s that a modelling approach to the problem started to evolve. Altman’s Z-score model was the first approach to combine a series of weighted ratios using the statistical technique of multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) to arrive at a final score, which was used to determine whether or not a company was likely to fail. Substantial research has followed over the subsequent 40 years, resulting in model variants ranging from slight changes to the seminal Z-score approach, and finally to totally different approaches using a range of statistical tools. This thesis builds on this earlier research by, firstly, reviewing the extensive literature to assess the perceived strengths and deficiencies of previous modelling approaches. Then, having set the key objective of arriving at a robust model that recognises these strengths and deficiencies and is readily accessible to researchers and practitioners, the model construct uses a combination of key components research has indicated to be of high predictive value. These comprise a combination of Z-score component factors, indicators of excessive gearing and overtrading, and key cash-flow indicators. The importance of non-financial factors has been emphasised by some researchers and, whilst they were considered and included in the model development, their value was found to be restricted to the most recent accounting period prior to the failure event; other problems also limited their overall effectiveness. A raw cash flow from operations (CFFO) figure was not discussed at length in the literature and has been largely ignored in previous models, usually in favour of cash-flow ratios. However, its inclusion was found to enhance the robustness of the model developed in this thesis. One of the key problems highlighted in previous research was the practicality of embracing a fail/non-fail cut-off point as presented by the MDA approach so commonly applied in many models. With the limitations and risks of such an approach it was decided instead to pursue a probability-of-failure scenario using the statistical tool, logistic regression. Two databases of Australian listed companies were developed, one of 47 failed companies and the other of 35 non-failed, both from three closely related industry groupings. The data from these companies, when applied to the model, produced results that predominantly met expectations with higher static and trending probability of failure as the actual failure event approached, and declining static and trending probability of failure for those companies in the non-fail category. Substantial scope exists for further application of the modelling approach used in this thesis once adjustments are made for different industry categories and/or geographic environments. This could involve application of the model across a broad range of industry applications as well as ongoing refinement of the model in line with testing the effectiveness of an expanded range of potential indicator inputs

FIESTA: An operational decision aid for space network fault isolation

The Fault Tolerance Expert System for Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Applications (FIESTA) is a fault detection and fault diagnosis expert system being developed as a decision aid to support operations in the Network Control Center (NCC) for NASA's Space Network. The operational objectives which influenced FIESTA development are presented and an overview of the architecture used to achieve these goals are provided. The approach to the knowledge engineering effort and the methodology employed are also presented and illustrated with examples drawn from the FIESTA domain

From invasion percolation to flow in rock fracture networks

The main purpose of this work is to simulate two-phase flow in the form of immiscible displacement through anisotropic, three-dimensional (3D) discrete fracture networks (DFN). The considered DFNs are artificially generated, based on a general distribution function or are conditioned on measured data from deep geological investigations. We introduce several modifications to the invasion percolation (MIP) to incorporate fracture inclinations, intersection lines, as well as the hydraulic path length inside the fractures. Additionally a trapping algorithm is implemented that forbids any advance of the invading fluid into a region, where the defending fluid is completely encircled by the invader and has no escape route. We study invasion, saturation, and flow through artificial fracture networks, with varying anisotropy and size and finally compare our findings to well studied, conditioned fracture networks.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure

Communication Services and Supports for Individuals With Severe Disabilities: Guidance for Assessment and Intervention

The National Joint Committee for the Communication Needs of People with Severe Disabilities (NJC) reviewed literature regarding practices for people with severe disabilities in order to update guidance provided in documents originally published in 1992. Changes in laws, definitions, and policies that affect communication attainments by persons with severe disabilities are presented, along with guidance regarding assessment and intervention practices. A revised version of the Communication Bill of Rights, a powerful document that describes the communication rights of all individuals, including those with severe disabilities is included in this article. The information contained within this article is intended to be used by professionals, family members, and individuals with severe disabilities to inform and advocate for effective communication services and opportunities

The need for fresh blood: understanding organizational age inequality through a vampiric lens

YesThis article argues that older age inequality within and across working life is the result of vampiric forms and structures constitutive of contemporary organizing. Rather than assuming ageism occurs against a backdrop of neutral organizational processes and practices, the article denaturalizes (and in the process super-naturalizes) organizational orientations of ageing through three vampiric aspects: (un)dying, regeneration and neophilia. These dimensions are used to illustrate how workplace narratives and logics normalize and perpetuate the systematic denigration of the ageing organizational subject. Through our analysis it is argued that older workers are positioned as inevitable ‘sacrificial objects’ of the all-consuming immortal organization. To challenge this, the article explicitly draws on the vampire and the vampiric in literature and popular culture to consider the possibility of subverting existing notions of the ‘older worker’ in order to confront and challenge the subtle and persistent monstrous discourses that shape organizational life

Correction: International Society of Sports Nutrition position stand: Nutrient timing

Position Statement: The position of the Society regarding nutrient timing and the intake of carbohydrates, proteins, and fats in reference to healthy, exercising individuals is summarized by the following eight points: 1.) Maximal endogenous glycogen stores are best promoted by following a high-glycemic, high-carbohydrate (CHO) diet (600 – 1000 grams CHO or ~8 – 10 g CHO/kg/d), and ingestion of free amino acids and protein (PRO) alone or in combination with CHO before resistance exercise can maximally stimulate protein synthesis. 2.) During exercise, CHO should be consumed at a rate of 30 – 60 grams of CHO/hour in a 6 – 8% CHO solution (8 – 16 fluid ounces) every 10 – 15 minutes. Adding PRO to create a CHO:PRO ratio of 3 – 4:1 may increase endurance performance and maximally promotes glycogen re-synthesis during acute and subsequent bouts of endurance exercise. 3.) Ingesting CHO alone or in combination with PRO during resistance exercise increases muscle glycogen, offsets muscle damage, and facilitates greater training adaptations after either acute or prolonged periods of supplementation with resistance training. 4.) Post-exercise (within 30 minutes) consumption of CHO at high dosages (8 – 10 g CHO/kg/day) have been shown to stimulate muscle glycogen re-synthesis, while adding PRO (0.2 g – 0.5 g PRO/kg/day) to CHO at a ratio of 3 – 4:1 (CHO: PRO) may further enhance glycogen re-synthesis. 5.) Post-exercise ingestion (immediately to 3 h post) of amino acids, primarily essential amino acids, has been shown to stimulate robust increases in muscle protein synthesis, while the addition of CHO may stimulate even greater levels of protein synthesis. Additionally, pre-exercise consumption of a CHO + PRO supplement may result in peak levels of protein synthesis. 6.) During consistent, prolonged resistance training, post-exercise consumption of varying doses of CHO + PRO supplements in varying dosages have been shown to stimulate improvements in strength and body composition when compared to control or placebo conditions. 7.) The addition of creatine (Cr) (0.1 g Cr/kg/day) to a CHO + PRO supplement may facilitate even greater adaptations to resistance training. 8.) Nutrient timing incorporates the use of methodical planning and eating of whole foods, nutrients extracted from food, and other sources. The timing of the energy intake and the ratio of certain ingested macronutrients are likely the attributes which allow for enhanced recovery and tissue repair following high-volume exercise, augmented muscle protein synthesis, and improved mood states when compared with unplanned or traditional strategies of nutrient intake

Detection and treatment of subclinical tuberculosis

SummaryReduction of active disease by preventive therapy has the potential to make an important contribution towards the goal of tuberculosis (TB) elimination. This report summarises discussions amongst a Working Group convened to consider areas of research that will be important in optimising the design and delivery of preventative therapies. The Working Group met in Cape Town on 26th February 2012, following presentation of results from the GC11 Grand Challenges in Global Health project to discover drugs for latent TB